Mamdani is putting everything on the line. One year after his stunning rise to City Hall, the New York mayor has plunged back into campaign mode, wagering his hard-won political capital on a bold attempt to push fellow leftists past entrenched Democratic incumbents. Tuesday’s primaries will reveal whether his brand is powerful enough to remake the party — or whether he has overreached.

A Bet on the Movement

A year ago this week, Zohran Mamdani’s surprise primary victory turned New York politics upside down. Now, in the final stretch of another primary season, the 34-year-old mayor is back on the trail, this time risking his own standing to lift relatively unknown leftist candidates to victory.

His targets are ambitious. Mamdani and his allies are working to unseat two Democratic incumbents — Representatives Daniel Goldman and Adriano Espaillat — whom they criticize as too cozy with corporate donors and too supportive of Israel. They’re also eyeing a third House seat and hoping to expand the socialist bloc in Albany.

The stakes could hardly be higher. If Mamdani succeeds, he’ll cement socialists as a major force in New York City politics and establish himself as a kingmaker capable of vaulting newcomers into office while sidelining longtime power brokers. But a string of defeats could badly damage his standing just six months into his term, energizing his opponents and creating fresh enemies.

Burning Bridges Along the Way

Mamdani’s aggressive push has come at a cost. His involvement has already alienated key allies who helped propel him to City Hall, including:

• Black and Latino progressives
• Powerful labor unions
• The left-leaning Working Families Party

Some former allies have gone public with their frustration. Representative Nydia Velázquez, an early Mamdani supporter, took the rare step of declaring she had lost trust in him.

The tension has even unsettled those sympathetic to his cause. Michael Lange, an elections analyst and fellow democratic socialist who chronicled Mamdani’s rise, described feeling “a pit in my stomach” from secondhand anxiety. He framed the effort as a genuine attempt to remake the Democratic Party — but warned that defeat could be brutal. If Mamdani loses, Lange suggested, critics would pounce, arguing the phenomenon was “more man than movement.”

All In, Not Just an Endorsement

Mamdani’s commitment goes well beyond lending his name. With his popularity at an all-time high, he has personally immersed himself in nearly every aspect of the campaigns — recruiting candidates, raising money, shooting ads, and holding private strategy sessions. Two of his top political aides are even helping run two of the campaigns, and he attempted to pressure labor unions into backing at least one of his candidates.

On Thursday, he headlined a rally at Brooklyn’s Kings Theater, hoping to recreate the energy and volunteer army that powered his own come-from-behind win. He acknowledged that some might wonder why he was still campaigning, but insisted his work was never about a single person, office, or election — declaring that the Democratic Party “must change.”

The State of the Races

The outcome remains far from certain. Recent polling suggests two of Mamdani’s endorsed candidates are locked in tossup races:

• Claire Valdez in the Brooklyn- and Queens-based Seventh District
• Darializa Avila Chevalier in the Manhattan- and Bronx-based 13th District

A third ally, longtime city official Brad Lander, appears better positioned to oust Goldman in the 10th District, which spans parts of Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn.

But Mamdani faces a turnout problem. His 2024 success depended on driving young voters to the polls in massive numbers, diluting the influence of older, more moderate voters. Without his name on the ballot this time, early voting trends pointed toward a smaller, older electorate. The shift was alarming enough that the local Democratic Socialists of America chapter reportedly called an emergency meeting to address what one leader described as a “cratering” youth vote.

An Unusual Posture for a Mayor

Mamdani spent the weekend barnstorming from district to district, campaigning shoulder-to-shoulder with his candidates while his face appeared in paid ads and cable news interviews across the city — much of it funded by money he helped raise at upscale fundraisers throughout the spring.

There’s little recent precedent for such aggressive mayoral involvement in off-year elections. While predecessors like Michael Bloomberg and Bill de Blasio dabbled in State Senate contests, modern mayors have generally sought to broaden their coalitions rather than risk shrinking them. Mamdani and his allies argue this is simply who he is — a politician who ignored conventional wisdom on his way into office and isn’t about to start playing it safe now.

Backstage after the rally, Mamdani brushed aside concerns about turnout and acknowledged he was prepared to accept collateral damage, insisting the risk was worth it for the candidates he believed in.

The Roots of the Rift

Mamdani’s maneuvering began even before his own victory was secure. In October, he met with Lander — a former rival turned ally — and encouraged him to challenge Goldman, who had close ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and had declined to endorse Mamdani despite his district’s overwhelming support.

The real friction erupted when Velázquez announced her retirement after three decades. She had hoped one of her protégés might succeed her, but Mamdani brushed those candidates aside in favor of Valdez — a first-term assemblywoman Velázquez barely knew, but who had backed Mamdani early and shared his criticism of Israel. The congresswoman was reportedly livid, and state Attorney General Letitia James noted she’d never heard Velázquez use so many four-letter words. Velázquez instead threw her support behind Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.

That race has deepened the divide between socialists and progressives, exposing raw tensions tied to the area’s rapid gentrification. Velázquez and the Working Families Party accuse the DSA of trying to shove them aside while exploiting their years of organizing, while the socialists counter that progressives aren’t rising to the moment.

The Most Divisive Fight

Perhaps the most contentious battle is Mamdani’s late-May endorsement of Avila Chevalier. Her opponent, Espaillat, chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and is a close ally of Representative Hakeem Jeffries, who is vying to become the next House speaker.

Espaillat hadn’t backed Mamdani in last year’s primary but quickly endorsed him afterward — and Mamdani had privately promised to return the favor. Yet as Avila Chevalier gained momentum, Mamdani saw a chance to elevate a fierce critic of Israel over Espaillat, who has maintained close ties to AIPAC. The reversal infuriated Jeffries and Latino leaders. As former mayoral nominee Fernando Ferrer put it, in politics and in life, you’re only as good as your word.

The Broader Stakes

For Jeffries, the primaries cut especially deep. Neither Valdez nor Avila Chevalier has committed to supporting his bid for House leadership, and their far-left positions could become ammunition for Republicans targeting moderate Democrats in the swing districts that will decide the majority. Avila Chevalier has spent weeks apologizing for inflammatory old tweets, including claims that all deportations are wrong and crude remarks about Kamala Harris.

Critics warn of national fallout. Howard Wolfson, a former Bloomberg adviser and ex-head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, cautioned that every Democrat in a competitive race could be forced to answer for the party’s most extreme voices, making the party as a whole appear out of touch.

Worth the Risk?

Mamdani’s allies see the turmoil as a necessary price. Usamah Andrabi of Justice Democrats, which is spending to help both Avila Chevalier and Valdez, argued the reward outweighs the risk, praising Mamdani for staking his own capital to fight for the movement he believes the city deserves.

Others remain torn. James, who once likened Mamdani to Barack Obama, said she respected the mayor but respected the dedication of Velázquez and Espaillat even more. She expressed hope that the rift might heal once the political season passed — but voiced doubt. While some say New Yorkers have short memories, James wasn’t so sure. This one, she warned, runs deep.

A Defining Test

Tuesday’s results will do more than determine a handful of congressional races. They’ll measure whether Mamdani’s remarkable political brand can extend beyond his own name and reshape the Democratic Party in his image — or whether his boldest gamble yet will leave him weakened, isolated, and surrounded by the allies he chose to burn.