New Zealand is gearing up for one of its closest elections in years, with polls suggesting that the centrist Opportunity party, led by millennial newcomer Qiulae Wong, could become the kingmaker in a tight race between the incumbent conservative coalition and the opposition.

Frustrated with soaring living costs, high unemployment, and a stagnant economy, voters are looking beyond the traditional center-right National party and center-left Labour party, both of which have seen their support fall below 30% in recent polls.

The Opportunity party, which pitches itself as both business- and climate-friendly, is set to secure enough votes to cross the 5% threshold required to secure seats in parliament. If the party achieves this feat, it would be the first total outsider party to do so in 30 years, according to Lara Greaves, an associate professor in politics at Wellington’s Victoria University.

If the election results mirror the polls, Opportunity would hold the balance of power, with both the incumbent right and the opposition left coalition groupings needing their support to secure a majority. However, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the right-wing National-led coalition government, has already ruled out a post-election deal with Opportunity, potentially facing a stark choice between walking back his decision or losing power.

The relative unpopularity of both Luxon and his key opponent, Labour’s Chris Hipkins, has shattered the traditional battle royale-style campaigns between major party leaders, giving minor party contenders more attention and influence over the direction of the next government.

Under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, coalitions are a near constant, but the powerful position minor parties find themselves in this year is “unprecedented territory,” according to Greaves. This could lead to fringe policies that get little attention during the campaign ultimately ending up on the government’s agenda after negotiations.

The election outcome could see the incumbent National-led coalition pushed further to the right by its emboldened partners, such as the right-wing-libertarian ACT party and the nationalist New Zealand First party. Alternatively, parties on the right have warned voters of potential new taxes if a leftist coalition were to form a government.

As New Zealanders head to the polls on Saturday, even experts are struggling to predict the outcome of this tightly contested election, which could see the first single-term government in more than half a century if Luxon’s National-led coalition loses.