The African National Congress (ANC), the former liberation movement and party of Nelson Mandela, is on course to suffer a significant defeat in South Africa’s local elections. With more than 80% of ballots counted, the ANC has fallen to under a third of the vote nationally, marking another stage in the party’s decline since the end of apartheid in 1994.

High unemployment, crime, corruption, and poor local service delivery have contributed to voters turning away from the ANC. The party is projected to lose its status as the biggest party in the two most populous provinces, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.

The centre-right, white-led Democratic Alliance (DA) has secured 24.1% of the vote, while the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, led by former ANC president Jacob Zuma, has garnered 9.3%. Voter turnout has also increased, with an estimated 54.5% of registered voters casting their ballots, up from 46% in the previous local elections.

In Johannesburg, South Africa’s commercial capital and biggest city, the DA is leading with 40% of the vote, followed by the ANC at 17.5% and ActionSA, a rightwing party led by Herman Mashaba, at 15.5%. The city has faced numerous challenges, including regular water and power cuts, uncollected rubbish, and potholes, with the municipality admitting to a 220bn rand (£9.9bn) infrastructure spending backlog.

The MK party is expected to displace the ANC as the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal, with a strong showing in eThekwini municipality, which contains Durban. Meanwhile, the DA is projected to maintain its majority in Cape Town, despite growing middle-class anger over rising housing costs.

As the final votes are counted, parties have begun coalition negotiations behind closed doors. The fragmented nature of the vote means that coalitions will be necessary to form municipal governments in many of the country’s biggest cities. The final results are expected to be announced on Sunday, with councillors having two weeks to elect mayors and form municipal governments.