European security agencies are working to determine whether the recent coordinated bomb threats against European airlines originated in Russia. The threats, which caused dozens of aircraft to be grounded this week, have prompted a cross-border investigation between European intelligence and security agencies.

While the investigation is still in its early stages, some in the European intelligence community believe that Russia is the most likely culprit, citing motive, method, precedent, and early forensic clues from investigations into the threats. The threats come amidst an escalating hybrid warfare campaign waged by the Kremlin’s agents in Europe this year, which aims to exploit civil vulnerabilities and disrupt everyday life.

A working hypothesis among European intelligence services is that pro-Kremlin activists or hacking groups produced the coordinated threats. However, it remains unclear what role, if any, Russian intelligence services may have played in directing, encouraging, or licensing such activity.

No evidence of explosives has been found on the targeted planes, and no obvious pattern to the disruptions has emerged. On Friday, Irish media organizations were also targeted. While Russia’s hybrid warfare in Europe has seen mounting “kinetic” activity this year, such attacks have so far been focused on targets that Russia considers to be providing military or logistical support for Ukraine.

European civilian aviation has been a proven target for acts of disruption, with multiple drone intrusions into flight paths around major European airports causing widespread chaos in European skies just over a year ago. Hoax bomb threats are also not new ground for Russian agents, with Lithuanian schools and kindergartens targeted with more than 1,500 baseless bomb threats in October 2023.

The Baltics have often been a “testing ground” for Russian provocations, and Western Europe is now having to cope with the kind of nuisance attacks that Russia has been perpetrating there for nearly two decades.

As the investigation continues, European security agencies are working to trace the origin of the threats and establish whether Russia played a role in this latest disruption to European aviation. The incident highlights the ongoing challenges faced by European nations in countering Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics and protecting their citizens from such attacks.