Scheffler’s case for a third green jacket

Scottie Scheffler arrives at Augusta National as he has for several years now: as the best golfer in the world and the man everyone else has to beat. The +500 favorite has been atop the Official World Golf Ranking for nearly three consecutive years, added his 20th career PGA Tour win earlier this season, and has now posted top-10 finishes in four straight Masters appearances — including wins in 2022 and 2024.

A win this week would make him only the sixth golfer in history to claim a third green jacket, and the 22nd to reach five career major championships. Last year he finished solo fourth. The pattern points in one direction.

The model’s biggest call: fade Ludvig Aberg

Aberg arrives at +1800 with a remarkable Augusta record — solo seventh on debut, solo second a year later — and every reason for optimism. The model sees it differently. Despite his comfort at Augusta, Aberg ranks only 36th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approaching the green, a stat that has historically separated contenders from also-rans at this course. The model has him finishing in the top 5 in only around one in four simulations. At +1800, that’s a bet worth avoiding.

The value pick: Tommy Fleetwood at +2200

Fleetwood is the model’s most compelling play. The 35-year-old Englishman — currently fourth in the world rankings — has made the cut in each of his last eight Masters appearances and recorded a career-best T-3 finish here in 2024. He comes in with top-10 finishes in four of his last five events, and after finally breaking through for his first PGA Tour win at the Tour Championship last season, he arrives with something to prove on the major stage.

His short game is arguably the best in the field right now: second on tour in strokes gained: around the green at 0.712 — a critical edge on Augusta’s treacherous putting surfaces. At +2200, the model says his real chances are significantly better than the market implies.

Two massive longshots worth a look

The model also identifies two players at +4000 or longer — including one around +8000 — as significantly undervalued by the market. Both appear in the model’s projected leaderboard as genuine surge candidates. The full details are available at SportsLine, but the lesson from the model’s track record (16 majors called correctly, including four straight Masters) is that Augusta has a way of rewarding players the public overlooks.