Star Wars: Mandalorian & Grogu Eyes $160M Global Box Office Opening Over Memorial Day

The Mandalorian & Grogu box office outlook is shaping up as one of the biggest stories of the Memorial Day weekend. Lucasfilm and Disney’s Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is heading into theaters with hopes of a strong global debut, and early projections suggest the franchise could deliver a solid result.

A More Promising Memorial Day Than Recent Years

There is encouraging news right out of the gate. This Memorial Day weekend will not mark the lowest point for the post-Covid box office, and Mandalorian and Grogu is not expected to stumble the way some recent holiday releases have.

For comparison, Warner Bros’ Furiosa opened to a modest $32.3 million over four days at this same point two years ago. The new Star Wars film, directed by Jon Favreau and co-written with executive producer Dave Filoni and Noah Kloor, is tracking far higher, with hopes of meeting or exceeding an $80 million four-day domestic figure.

The Global Projection

On the worldwide stage, the film is projected to open to around $160 million globally. Roughly $80 million of that is expected to come from overseas markets, covering a 98% international footprint. The only major territory sitting out the opening weekend is Korea.

For a production reportedly carrying a $165 million net budget, that start would land slightly ahead of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story in like-for-like terms. Solo, often cited as a franchise low point, arrived amid significant behind-the-scenes turmoil, including the firing of original directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller and the handover of directing duties to Ron Howard. It still managed a four-day Memorial Day haul of $103 million domestically and $52 million abroad.

Strong Presales and a Big Theater Footprint

Early demand signals look healthy. North American presales for Mandalorian and Grogu stand at $25 million. That figure runs ahead of where Project Hail Mary sat at the same stage and roughly in line with Avatar: Fire and Ash.

The film is also getting an expansive release:

• Booked in 4,300 theaters, including 425 Imax screens
• Available across PLF, 4DX, 3D, and ScreenX formats
• An exclusive three-week run in Imax
• Previews beginning Thursday at 2 p.m., with no early fan screenings on Wednesday

One potential soft spot is critical reception. With the review embargo lifted, the film stands at 61% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, slightly below Solo’s 69% score.

Why Disney Made This Movie

The decision to bring Mandalorian and Grogu to the big screen reflects broader franchise strategy rather than fan demand alone. While some Star Wars fans have loudly campaigned for other projects, Disney’s reasoning here is rooted in the wider ecosystem of parks, toys, and merchandise.

The numbers help explain why. Since The Mandalorian debuted on Disney+, around 13 million units of Grogu merchandise have been sold. Notably, this is also the first time a Disney+ series has been adapted into a theatrical film. Tying into that, the Millennium Falcon ride at Disneyland and Disney World is being refreshed with Smugglers Run, a mission connected to the movie.

The International Picture

Overseas, Star Wars films traditionally perform well in markets like the UK, Australia, Germany, and Japan. Favreau has been actively promoting the film, with stops in Mexico and Japan.

Latin America is typically a tougher region for science fiction, though the family-friendly nature of Mandalorian and Grogu could work in its favor. China remains a question mark, as the franchise has never enjoyed strong nostalgia there. Disney pushed hard for 2015’s The Force Awakens, which reported around $124 million in the market, but interest faded sharply by 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, which managed just $20.5 million, even before the pandemic.

The Competition

Mandalorian and Grogu will not have the weekend entirely to itself, though its rivals are aiming much lower.

Neon’s I Love Boosters, a Boots Riley satirical comedy starring Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige, Naomi Ackie, Poppy Liu, and Eiza Gonzalez, is opening in 2,000 theaters. Industry estimates point to a four-day total in the high single-digit millions, with women over 25 representing its strongest audience. The film has earned glowing reviews, sitting at 93% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes after premiering at SXSW.

Paramount’s R-rated horror film Passenger, directed by André Øvredal, is targeting $9 million to $10 million over four days, drawing best from audiences under 25. It is booked in 2,500 theaters with Thursday previews and is also opening internationally across 49 markets, including Australia, Brazil, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain, and the UK.

The Bottom Line

The Mandalorian & Grogu box office story will ultimately hinge on one key factor: whether families turn out in force for the first Star Wars film in seven years. With strong presales, a massive theater footprint, and an exclusive Imax run, the pieces are in place for a healthy $160 million global launch. Mixed reviews add a note of caution, but if the broad family appeal connects, this could be a Memorial Day weekend worth remembering for Star Wars.