A Strait of Hormuz deal between Iran and Oman is taking shape, and markets have already begun pricing in the possibility that the world’s most important oil chokepoint reopens on negotiated terms.

The two Gulf nations issued a joint statement on Tuesday describing progress toward safe transit arrangements and, eventually, shared administration of the waterway.

What the Two Sides Announced

According to the statement, the foreign ministers of both countries discussed a proposed framework covering two immediate items.

The first is a joint temporary navigational corridor through the strait. The second is an agreement to carry out a joint project clearing the waterway of mines.

Those are near-term measures. The statement also indicated that technical negotiations will continue toward more permanent arrangements, including a fixed navigational corridor and future administration of the strait itself.

The longer list is notably detailed. It includes a mechanism for sharing information, managing traffic, and providing navigational and security services.

Taken together, that describes something closer to a governance structure than a ceasefire provision.

Markets Reacted Immediately

Oil prices extended recent declines following the announcement, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropping below $90 per barrel overnight.

The direction is worth pausing on, because it runs against what the shipping data shows.

Only five commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, well below the ten-day average of 15, according to preliminary figures from Kpler. Before the conflict with Iran, roughly a fifth of global crude typically moved through the strait.

Traffic has fallen by about two-thirds, and prices are falling anyway. That tells you markets are trading on expectations rather than current volumes, betting that a negotiated corridor restores flows before shortages bite.

Other Signals Pointing the Same Direction

Several developments have reinforced the sense that escalation is receding.

The United States has reportedly begun returning diplomats to Gulf states, which suggests Washington does not currently anticipate military confrontation.

Russia’s RIA Novosti reported late Tuesday, citing Iranian and Pakistani sources, that the United States and Iran would announce a new ceasefire agreement within days, one that would include freedom of shipping through Hormuz.

That report could not be independently verified. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The Sanctions That Have Not Landed

All of this follows Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement on Monday of what he called an economic D-Day against the Iranian government, promising to target Tehran’s enablers and trading partners in an effort to strangle its economy. The rollout included a list of 60 individuals, entities and vessels.

What has not followed is the more consequential step.

Washington has so far refrained from imposing significant secondary sanctions on other countries, most notably on Chinese financial institutions suspected of facilitating Iranian oil sales.

Bessent explained the restraint in unusually candid terms, asking why he would want to blow up the global financial system. He described the current approach as level-setting and offering a cure period, while insisting that enforcement would move quickly and that the United States is serious.

Beijing Pushes Back

China’s position matters more than any other, since it purchases roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports.

On Tuesday, Beijing threatened retaliation should Washington broaden economic pressure on countries trading with Tehran. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said the country will take all necessary measures to firmly protect its rights and interests.

That threat is likely central to the pause. Sanctioning Chinese banks is not a targeted measure. It reaches into the plumbing of international finance, and the consequences would not stay confined to Iran.

Reading the Restraint

Bessent’s language is revealing. A cure period is the vocabulary of negotiation, not enforcement. It signals that the announced sanctions function partly as leverage, with the heavier instruments held back deliberately.

That interpretation fits the wider picture. Diplomats returning to the Gulf, reports of an imminent ceasefire, and Iran negotiating corridor arrangements with Oman all point toward a phase where pressure is being applied to shape terms rather than to break the other side.

Whether that reading holds depends on questions nobody can answer yet.

What to Watch

Several threads will determine how this develops.

Whether the Iran-Oman framework converts into an operational corridor, and how quickly mine clearance actually proceeds.

Whether tanker traffic recovers toward normal levels, which would confirm that shipping companies and insurers believe the arrangements are real.

Whether Washington eventually pulls the trigger on Chinese financial institutions, or whether the cure period quietly becomes permanent.

And whether the reported ceasefire materializes at all, given that the only sourcing so far runs through Russian state media citing unnamed officials.

For now, oil traders have made their bet. The strait is emptier than usual and getting cheaper by the barrel.