A Strait of Hormuz deal may finally be within reach, with President Donald Trump suggesting an announcement could arrive within a day or two and regional officials indicating negotiators have already finalized a draft.

Whether this attempt holds where a previous one collapsed remains the open question.

Trump’s Timeline

Asked by reporters traveling with him in California about an Axios report suggesting a Wednesday announcement, Trump did not dismiss it.

He said it could happen tomorrow or the day after, adding that substantial progress had been made. He spoke Tuesday evening California time.

Markets reacted, then hesitated. Oil prices initially softened on expectations that shipping might resume, before edging back upward. Brent crude sat near $80 per barrel Wednesday, still considerably below the peaks reached during the sharpest phase of the conflict.

Skepticism is warranted. The United States and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the strait back in June, only for attacks to resume afterward. In recent days Trump has oscillated between threatening large-scale strikes and endorsing diplomatic efforts.

What the Draft Reportedly Contains

Two regional officials briefed on the negotiations told the Associated Press that Iranian and Omani negotiators have completed a draft and are waiting on final approval from Iran’s supreme leader.

Those officials, speaking anonymously, characterized the arrangement as temporary rather than permanent, describing it as a stopgap addressing the dispute over vessel transit.

The structure they outlined involves splitting the traffic. Ships would enter the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route and exit through a route controlled by Oman. Service fees would be levied to cover security provision and environmental protection.

They also indicated the deal would clear the way for the U.S. and Iran to restart negotiations toward a comprehensive agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Neither Oman nor Iran has commented officially.

The Sticking Points

Two elements of that reported framework run directly against stated American positions.

The Trump administration has ruled out any arrangement granting Iran control over the strait, which functioned as an open international waterway before the war and now sees only a trickle of traffic.

Trump has also rejected the fee structure outright. Speaking Monday, he said he would not permit charges, and warned that if anyone imposes them, the United States will impose its own.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has voiced the same objection in stronger institutional terms, saying last month that ceding control of the strait would establish a very dangerous precedent.

Rubio confirmed progress in the Oman talks while stressing that nothing is final.

Iran’s Framing

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described the discussions with Oman in more technical language on Tuesday.

He said the focus involves establishing safe inbound and outbound shipping lanes, routes designed to uphold sovereign rights while accommodating the national security concerns of both Iran and Oman. Results would be announced upon conclusion, he said, according to state-run IRNA.

The gap between “sovereign rights” and Washington’s insistence on an open international waterway is not merely rhetorical. It describes the actual dispute.

Why the Strait Matters Globally

Before the conflict, roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas moved through this passage.

Its closure has pushed fuel and basic goods prices upward far beyond the region, disrupting economies with no direct connection to the war. That economic pain is now feeding domestic political pressure on Trump, who faces midterm elections with an unpopular war on his record.

The war itself began Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched operations citing goals including regime change in Tehran and elimination of Iran’s nuclear program. It has since narrowed into a contest over this specific waterway.

Attacks Continue Regardless

Diplomatic optimism has not translated into calm on the water.

Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed Wednesday to have fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker, the Wafa, in the Red Sea. Military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said in a prerecorded statement that the vessel was targeted near the Saudi port of Yanbu, offering no supporting evidence. Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond.

That claim fits a broader escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia that risks reigniting Yemen’s civil war, which pitted the rebels against a Saudi-led coalition backing the government.

In July, the Houthis declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Saudi-linked shipping. That closure carries outsized consequences because the Red Sea became a critical alternative corridor for Saudi oil exports once Hormuz traffic collapsed.

Other incidents have followed in quick succession:

An Indian-flagged commercial vessel sank Tuesday off Yemen after being struck by an explosive-laden boat. Yemen’s coast guard rescued 13 Indian crew members and one Yemeni. No group claimed responsibility.

Earlier Tuesday, a cargo ship reported being hit by an unidentified projectile roughly 37 kilometers northeast of Al Khasab, Oman, inside the Strait of Hormuz itself, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center.

UN Raises Alarm Over Executions

Separately, UN human rights chief Volker Türk criticized a rise in executions and death sentences in Iran since March, arguing capital punishment is being deployed to generate fear and silence opposition.

He reported at least 56 executions since March 19, including 27 people convicted in cases tied to nationwide anti-government protests earlier this year. More than 100 additional individuals face execution on comparable charges.

Türk described persistent failures of fair trial and due process as deeply troubling. He alleged confessions were extracted through torture and mistreatment, and noted reports of public executions, some occurring only weeks after arrest.