California Democrats Face a Tough Choice in the Race to Replace Newsom

The crowded California Democrats race to replace Newsom has left many voters in the state feeling uncertain and uninspired as the primary draws near. With a chaotic campaign behind them and the June 2 primary looming, Democrats are grappling with a difficult question: who actually deserves their vote?

Unlike recent gubernatorial contests that featured clear frontrunners or political celebrities, this race has produced no obvious leader, leaving voters to sift through a sprawling field with little enthusiasm.

A Race Without a Standout

Voting opened in early May, yet Democrats have been returning their ballots more slowly than usual. The reason appears tied to the unpredictable nature of the campaign, which has been packed with surprises and lacks the kind of standout figure that energized past elections.

In previous races, voters could rally behind a recognizable star, whether it was Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger or Democrat Jerry Brown. This time, no such figure has emerged. The absence of a political superstar has left many feeling like they’re settling rather than choosing.

That sentiment was captured by Colin Culver, a 21-year-old San Diego resident who ultimately voted for billionaire hedge fund manager turned climate activist Tom Steyer. He described the experience bluntly, saying he was essentially holding his nose while voting rather than feeling any genuine excitement about the field.

How the Top-Two Primary Adds to the Confusion

Part of what makes this election so perplexing for Democrats is California’s distinctive top-two primary system. Under this format, every candidate appears on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation, and the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election.

The numbers involved are staggering. Roughly 60 candidates are competing to succeed the termed-out Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. Among them are six major Democrats and just two prominent Republicans, a lopsided distribution that creates real strategic complications for the party.

The Republican Threat That Loomed Large

Months ago, Democratic leaders worried about a nightmare scenario. With so many Democrats splitting the vote, there was a genuine fear that the two leading Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, could both advance, effectively shutting Democrats out of the general election entirely.

Several developments have shifted that calculus:

• Former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race after being accused of sexual assault, a scandal that nonetheless rattled already anxious Democrats.
• President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton in April, which may have consolidated Republican support behind him and reduced the chances of a surprise GOP sweep.

It’s worth noting that California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2011, but the unusual dynamics of this race have kept the fear alive among Democratic voters.

Why Voters Are Waiting

The anxiety has translated into a noticeable delay in ballot returns. Even reliably high-turnout Democrats, often older, white voters, have been slow to submit their ballots, according to Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell, who tracks ballot returns.

Mitchell offered a lighthearted take on the situation, joking that people should call their Democratic parents and remind them to turn in their ballots. He explained that many voters are holding back precisely because the race has been so unpredictable. They want to be confident they’re making the right choice before committing.

The data reflects this hesitation. As of Wednesday, about 10% of the state’s roughly 23 million voters had cast ballots. The breakdown looked like this:

• About 15% of Republicans had voted.
• Around 10% of Democrats had returned ballots.
• Roughly 7% of voters registered with no party or another party had participated.

This pattern is unusual because in recent years Democrats have tended to vote early while many Republicans wait until Election Day. The reversal signals just how much uncertainty is gripping the Democratic electorate.

Where the Candidates Stand

Several Democrats are competing for attention, with former state attorney general and federal Health secretary Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer among the top contenders voters are weighing.

A mid-May poll from the Public Policy Institute of California offered a snapshot of the field. It found that both Becerra and Hilton each held the support of about two in ten likely primary voters. Meanwhile, Steyer, Bianco, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter each drew between 10% and 15%. No other candidates managed to reach double digits.

Becerra’s rise has been notable. His support climbed from just 5% in an earlier PPIC poll conducted in late March and early April, back when Swalwell was still in the race.

Voters Wrestle With Their Decisions

Not everyone is leaning on polling to guide their choice. Mary O’Neal, a San Francisco native, voted for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa because she admired his record leading the city from 2005 to 2013. Despite appearing in debates, however, Villaraigosa has struggled to gain real traction.

Others remain torn. Alexa Duran, a 22-year-old recent UC Berkeley graduate from Fresno, said she’s leaning toward Becerra despite reservations. She pointed to his refusal as attorney general to investigate the 2020 killing of a Latino man by an officer in the Bay Area, admitting she wasn’t entirely sure he was the right candidate even while acknowledging his extensive political experience.

The dilemma facing many voters is perhaps best illustrated by Amber Larson, a 41-year-old judicial analyst living in Chico. She genuinely likes Ramsey Robinson, a socialist candidate, but feels that voting for him would be wasted given his slim odds.

Larson finds herself caught between options she’s uncomfortable with. She doesn’t want to back a longtime politician like Becerra, and she’s wary of billionaires like Steyer, who has spent millions largely self-funding his campaign. She summed up her frustration with a pointed question about whether the only way to beat an establishment career politician is to be a billionaire.

In the end, Larson planned to vote for Steyer anyway, drawn to his energy affordability plans and his status as a leading candidate. As she put it, she didn’t want to throw her vote away.

A Telling Snapshot of the Moment

The reluctance and second-guessing on display capture something larger about this election. Many Democrats feel boxed in by a system that rewards strategic voting over genuine enthusiasm, forcing them to weigh electability against personal conviction.

The result is a electorate that seems more focused on avoiding the wrong outcome, namely a Republican breakthrough, than on rallying around a candidate they truly believe in.

What Comes Next

As the June 2 primary approaches, the California Democrats race to replace Newsom remains genuinely unsettled. With ballots trickling in slowly and no candidate having decisively broken away, the final days could prove pivotal.

Whether a clear Democratic frontrunner emerges in time, or whether the party’s fears about the top-two system materialize, the coming days will determine the shape of California’s next chapter. For now, many Democrats are doing exactly what Paul Mitchell described: holding onto their ballots, watching the polls, and hoping to make a choice they won’t regret.