California Governor Race 2026: Voters Pick Newsom’s Successor in a Wide-Open Primary

The California governor race has reached a turning point, and for the first time in over twenty years, voters are poised to choose a new state leader who isn’t already a household name nationally. After months of twists, surprises, and shifting alliances, Californians are heading to the polls to begin sorting through a crowded and unpredictable field.

A Chaotic Road to the Primary

The contest to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom has been anything but smooth. Early on, Kamala Harris briefly toyed with the idea of running. Senator Alex Padilla also weighed a bid before stepping back. Then came Representative Eric Swalwell, whose campaign collapsed amid a wave of sexual misconduct allegations that ultimately pushed him out of Congress entirely.

What’s left is a roster of roughly half a dozen serious contenders, most of whom have struggled to truly energize voters. Under California’s system, the top two finishers move on to a November runoff regardless of party affiliation.

The fiercest battle has unfolded between the two leading Democrats: Tom Steyer, the billionaire financier running hard to the left, and Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and Biden administration health secretary who would become California’s first modern Latino governor. On the Republican side, President Trump’s endorsement of former Fox News personality Steve Hilton has given him a real shot at advancing, largely because so few serious Republicans are in the mix.

One note for election night: California is famously slow to count its votes, so don’t expect definitive results right away.

Does Experience Still Matter to Voters?

A central question hanging over the race is whether voters still prize traditional political experience.

Becerra has built his pitch around exactly that. With a résumé spanning the state legislature, congressional leadership, the attorney general’s office, and a federal cabinet post, he argues he won’t need “training wheels” once in office. His path echoes those of both Newsom and Jerry Brown, who each held significant office before becoming governor.

Steyer represents the polar opposite. Despite a 2020 presidential run, the former hedge fund manager has never won an elected office. He’s campaigning as a progressive outsider with bold plans to raise commercial property taxes and overhaul how Californians access health care and electricity.

He isn’t the only one running as a disruptor. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan are also positioning themselves as reformers eager to shake up Sacramento, though both have some governmental background. Still, the nastiest fight remains the one between Becerra and Steyer.

Will Democrats Back a Billionaire?

California has a long history of wealthy candidates trying, and failing, to buy their way into office. The list includes:

• Al Checchi, who ran for governor in 1998
• Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, both tech executives who lost statewide races in 2010
• Rick Caruso, who spent $100 million falling short in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race

Steyer is attempting to break that pattern, and he’s doing it on an unprecedented scale. He has poured more than $200 million into the race, flooding the airwaves with over 1,300 ads a day in May alone, according to AdImpact. That’s roughly four times the combined output of every other campaign, not counting the paid social media influencers boosting his candidacy.

His twist is unusual: a billionaire campaigning to raise taxes on billionaires and corporations. Polls show him locked in a tight three-way contest with Becerra and Hilton for a runoff spot.

Becerra, who highlights his roots as the son of working-class immigrants, didn’t self-fund. Instead, he drew heavy support from interest groups with business before the state. Oil companies, utilities, health care firms, tech platforms, and soda companies collectively spent around $54 million to oppose Steyer and lift Becerra.

Can Republican TV Personalities Gain Traction?

Democrats have controlled California for over a decade, yet the state has bled population to cheaper red states as housing costs soared and homelessness tarnished its image. That backdrop has opened the door for Republicans better known for their television fame than their policy chops.

Hilton, the former Fox News host, became the Republican front-runner for governor after Trump endorsed him in April. He’ll likely reach November but faces extraordinarily long odds of actually winning the governorship.

Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, former reality star Spencer Pratt is mounting a flashy mayoral campaign powered by viral AI videos his supporters spread online. Trump has voiced hope that Pratt performs well, calling him “a big MAGA person.”

Pratt has emerged as a genuine wild card in the race for the nation’s second-largest city. He lost his Pacific Palisades home in last year’s fires and blames Mayor Karen Bass and other Democratic leaders, a grievance now central to his campaign. Bass also faces pressure from the left in City Council member Nithya Raman. Recent polling shows a tight race, with Bass holding a slim lead while Raman and Pratt jockey for second.

The Democratic Party’s Nightmare Scenario

For months, California Democrats fretted over a worst-case outcome: too many Democrats splitting the vote, allowing two Republicans to advance in America’s biggest blue state.

The crowded field, which also includes former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state schools chief Tony Thurmond, fueled those fears. But the anxiety eased once Hilton pulled well ahead of his main GOP rival, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Now, with Hilton, Becerra, and Steyer bunched together in the polls, the opposite scenario looks possible: two Democrats advancing, setting up a brutal intraparty slugfest through November. Hilton appeared worried enough about that prospect that he reportedly asked Bianco to drop out over the weekend.

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, the key question is whether Bass will face a progressive or a more Trump-aligned opponent in the fall. Newsom recently endorsed Bass, who has weathered criticism over her absence during the early hours of last year’s fires and her approach to homelessness.

California’s House Races Mirror National Tensions

With 52 House seats, California offers a revealing snapshot of the political fault lines running through the country.

In San Francisco, the contest to replace former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has become a referendum on progressivism, Israel, gender, artificial intelligence, and more. In the Central Valley, Republicans are trying to boost a more progressive Democrat, Randy Villegas, against vulnerable GOP incumbent David Valadao, believing he’d be easier to beat than the moderate Democrats prefer, Dr. Jasmeet Bains.

Elsewhere, redistricting has pitted Republican Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim against each other in a bitter clash over loyalty to Trump. And in both Northern and Southern California, several veteran Democrats, including Doris Matsui, Mike Thompson, and Brad Sherman, are fending off younger challengers pushing a message of generational change.

The Bottom Line

The California governor race remains genuinely up for grabs, with three candidates clustered at the top and the final shape of November’s runoff still uncertain. Whatever happens on election night, the slow vote count means Californians may have to wait to learn who will compete to lead the nation’s most populous state, and which direction its politics are heading next.