Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed dozens of people in recent days, casting a long shadow over a fragile ceasefire and threatening to derail high-stakes diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. As negotiators prepare to meet in Switzerland, the violence on the ground raises serious doubts about whether the truce can hold.

A Ceasefire Under Heavy Strain

Despite a renewed ceasefire taking effect on Friday, Israeli air raids and drone strikes have continued across southern Lebanon, deepening the human toll and complicating efforts to end the broader conflict.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reported that Israeli attacks since March 2 have killed at least 4,057 people and wounded 12,121 — a staggering figure that underscores the scale of the devastation. On Friday alone, just after the renewed ceasefire was announced, 83 people were killed and 141 wounded, with most casualties concentrated in the south and others in the east.

The persistence of the strikes has left officials and observers questioning how durable the agreement really is.

Mounting Civilian Casualties

Saturday brought another wave of deadly attacks across multiple districts in southern Lebanon. Among the reported incidents:

• In the Nabatieh district, Israeli strikes killed 16 people and wounded 12, according to the Lebanese Civil Defence agency.
• In the village of Barish in Tyre district, an Israeli strike killed four members of the same family — a father, mother, and their two children.
• In Sohmor, in the western Bekaa Valley, an Israeli raid struck a house while a family was inside, killing four and injuring one.
• In Qanarit, in the Sidon district, at least seven people were killed and 13 wounded.

A Lebanese soldier was also killed in an Israeli attack on the village of Kfar Reman, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.

Reporting from Tyre, Al Jazeera’s Heidi Pett described a brutal day, noting more than 100 Israeli air strikes on southern Lebanon since midnight. She said civilians were among the dead and wounded, and pointed to a targeted strike on a Lebanese soldier riding his motorbike — an attack that drew a sharp response from an army that typically avoids political entanglements.

Diplomacy on a Knife’s Edge

The violence comes just as the United States and Iran prepare for a critical round of talks. According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the two sides will meet Sunday in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, to follow up on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed earlier in the week. Representatives from both nations will attend, joined by mediators from Pakistan and Qatar.

For Iran, the stakes in Lebanon are directly tied to the success of these negotiations. Tehran views a genuine ceasefire in Lebanon as essential to the diplomatic process, warning that it could “make or break” the talks. Notably, Article 1 of the MoU explicitly states that ending the war in Lebanon is an integral part of a broader ceasefire across all fronts.

That linkage makes the continued Israeli strikes especially destabilizing. Reporting from Beirut, Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride said the situation highlighted the shaky foundation of the ceasefire and how heavily the entire negotiating process now depends on what unfolds in Lebanon in the days and weeks ahead.

Frustration and Exhaustion in Lebanon

Inside Lebanon, the toll is being felt deeply — both emotionally and economically. The Lebanese army issued a statement Saturday arguing that the ongoing Israeli attacks were designed to obstruct efforts to restore stability in the country.

Najat Aoun Saliba, a Lebanese member of parliament, told Al Jazeera that the population is worn down by the relentless killing and destruction. She said the conflict is costing the government dearly in money and suffering, and accused both Israel and Hezbollah of using Lebanese territory to gain leverage in the wider war involving Iran.

Claims and Counterclaims

Each side has accused the other of violating the truce. Hezbollah said Saturday that it targeted Israeli troops who had advanced toward an area near Nabatieh overnight. Shortly afterward, the Israeli military claimed Hezbollah had fired more than 50 projectiles at its soldiers operating in southern Lebanon, framing the launches as a breach of the ceasefire.

The Israeli army also announced that another soldier had been killed in its operations in southern Lebanon — the fifth Israeli fatality since the US-Iran deal was reached.

Separate Talks Between Lebanon and Israel

Alongside the US-Iran track, a parallel diplomatic effort is underway. The US Department of State confirmed that a new round of talks between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Washington, DC, on Tuesday and Thursday, aimed at making progress toward a lasting peace.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforced that message in a Friday conversation with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, telling him that direct negotiations with Israel offered the only realistic path to reconstruction, economic recovery, and an end to repeated cycles of violence.

The background to these talks stretches back to November 2024, when Israel and Lebanon first signed a ceasefire. Since then, the Lebanese government has worked toward disarming Hezbollah under a US-backed roadmap while also pushing for Israel’s withdrawal from the south. This month’s agreement called for Hezbollah to pull back north of the Litani River but stopped short of demanding a full Israeli withdrawal.

The Hezbollah Obstacle

A major complication hangs over the entire process: Hezbollah has been excluded from the talks, limiting the prospects for meaningful progress.

On Saturday, Ali Fayyad, a Hezbollah representative in the Lebanese parliament, ruled out any ceasefire while Israeli forces remain on Lebanese soil. Speaking through Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, he warned that further aggression would be met with a response.

Fayyad described the group’s stance as firm and non-negotiable, arguing that a ceasefire means nothing while what he called assassinations and targeting continue. He insisted the right to self-defense was not open to bargaining.

An Uncertain Road Ahead

As negotiators gather in Switzerland and prepare for talks in Washington, the reality on the ground tells a sobering story. With strikes continuing, casualties mounting, and key players like Hezbollah sidelined, the path to a lasting peace in Lebanon remains deeply uncertain. For now, a fragile truce hangs in the balance — and with it, the broader hope of de-escalation across the region.