The New Hampshire Senate race now has its headliners. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu each cleared their primaries on Tuesday, setting up a general election contest for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. For a party trying to claw its way back to a Senate majority in November, holding this seat is close to non-negotiable.

Tuesday’s voting did more than settle one contest, though. It locked in several matchups that will test whether New Hampshire’s unusual political habits still hold. For years now, the state has behaved like two different electorates stitched together, handing Republicans control of the statehouse while sending Democrats to Washington. This cycle will show whether that split personality survives.

Why This Senate Seat Matters So Much

Open seats are rare and expensive, and this one arrives at a moment when the math for Senate control is unforgiving. Democrats need a run of favorable outcomes to flip the chamber, and losing a seat they already hold would undo much of that arithmetic before it starts. That makes the New Hampshire Senate race less of a regional storyline and more of a national pressure point, which is why outside money has already poured in and will keep coming.

Sununu Wins Without Bending on His Trump History

The Republican primary doubled as an experiment: does criticizing Donald Trump still cost a candidate in a GOP primary?

Apparently not always. Sununu, who represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 and comes from the state’s most recognizable Republican family, beat Scott Brown. Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and Trump-appointed ambassador, ran as the outsider promising to break up a political dynasty. The pitch did not land.

What makes Sununu’s win notable is his record of dissent. He once described Trump as a loser in an opinion piece supporting Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential bid, and he has said publicly that he would not have launched the war in Iran. Even so, he collected Trump’s endorsement and the backing of the national party apparatus. The takeaway for other Republicans is straightforward: electability arguments and establishment support can still outweigh old quarrels.

Pappas Holds Off a Challenge From the Left

On the Democratic side, Pappas defeated Karishma Manzur, a democratic socialist hoping to add another scalp to a year of insurgent wins against party regulars.

The race hit many of the same fault lines that have surfaced in Democratic primaries nationwide, especially over American support for Israel during the devastation in Gaza. Manzur went after Pappas for his congressional voting record and his ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Pappas countered with a campaign built around household costs, a full-throated defense of safety-net programs, and four terms of proven results in a swing district. Roughly $4.8 million in outside spending, according to AdImpact figures, did not hurt either.

Strategically, his nomination probably gives Democrats a cleaner shot at keeping the seat than a democratic socialist would have. But he is not walking into an easy fight. Sununu’s name is stamped on New Hampshire politics, and his previous Senate service gives him a credibility Pappas will have to work to blunt.

Ayotte Defends Turf in a State Kamala Harris Won

At the top of the ballot, Republicans renominated Gov. Kelly Ayotte for another two-year term after she dispatched two primary challengers. Healthcare attorney Cinde Warmington took the Democratic nomination without opposition.

Ayotte is a former US senator and state attorney general, and she is one of just two Republican governors seeking reelection this cycle in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024. Her campaign has emphasized a prosecutor’s approach to public safety, more affordable housing, and a hard line against new taxes.

Governing has been messier than the message. Even with fellow Republicans running the legislature, Ayotte has clashed with lawmakers repeatedly. She issued 33 vetoes in the last session; legislators overrode seven of them, mostly in fights over criminal justice and education policy.

Because Warmington faced no primary opponent, Republicans started attacking her months ago. Their favored line of attack focuses on her past work for Purdue Pharma, the maker of OxyContin, and her opposition in the early 2000s to a state bill designed to tighten access to prescriptions for the drug. Warmington has said she did not understand how dangerous the medication was at the time.

The broader backdrop is that Harris won New Hampshire, yet Republicans have controlled state government for years running.

A Trump-Backed Newcomer Wins the House Primary

With Pappas moving up, his competitive House seat is suddenly wide open, and Republicans see an opening.

Anthony DiLorenzo emerged from a crowded Republican field in the 1st District. A political newcomer endorsed by Trump, he ran on his private-sector résumé as a real estate developer and auto dealer, and he put more than $1.7 million of his own money behind the effort. A longtime party donor, he also picked up backing from senior House Republicans eager to flip the district and pad a very thin majority.

The seat covers Manchester and has been in Pappas’s hands since 2019. On the Democratic side, Stefany Shaheen, daughter of the retiring senator, is competing in a packed primary field.

What to Watch Next

Three things will shape the fall. First, whether Sununu’s establishment appeal converts in a general electorate that has repeatedly rejected Republicans for federal office. Second, whether Pappas can make affordability the defining issue rather than national party fights. Third, whether the 1st District becomes the Republicans’ pickup or another example of New Hampshire splitting its ticket.

For now, the New Hampshire Senate race is the marquee event, and both parties know exactly how much rides on it.