Typhoon Dolphin is bearing down on China’s eastern coast, and the scale of the response reflects the scale of the storm. Ferry routes have been suspended, construction halted, fishermen evacuated and drones deployed to patrol offshore waters as coastal provinces brace for the fourth typhoon to reach the country this summer.

Where It Is and Where It’s Going

By Friday morning, the storm sat roughly 820 kilometers from China’s east coast.

The National Meteorological Centre expects landfall between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning, somewhere along the stretch between Zhejiang province in eastern China and northern Fujian.

The centre maintained a yellow alert, the third-strongest level on a four-tier scale, warning of heavy wind and rain across Zhejiang, Fujian and Taiwan.

Its path after landfall remains uncertain. Forecasters estimate it could move west or northwest, but have not committed to either.

A Storm Measured in Provinces

The most striking detail concerns size rather than wind speed.

Meteorologist Shen Yuyang said that by Friday morning, the typhoon had grown to nearly 13 times the size of Zhejiang province, equivalent to roughly 1,230 times the area of Hong Kong.

That figure matters practically, not just rhetorically. A storm with an unusually large wind radius affects territory far beyond its center, which is why forecasters have emphasized that inland residents need to pay attention rather than assuming distance from the coast provides safety.

Heavy rain is possible across a wide swath of provinces including Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Shandong. Authorities have urged residents to monitor flash flood alerts.

Technology in the Response

State broadcaster CCTV reported Thursday that Chinese authorities are leaning on newer forecasting tools as the storm entered the 48-hour alert window.

An artificial intelligence forecasting system at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre is being used to project the typhoon’s route, intensity and landfall characteristics as far out as 240 hours.

Drones have been deployed to patrol over the sea, providing observation coverage in conditions that would be dangerous or impractical for crewed aircraft and vessels.

The forecasting horizon is the notable part. Ten-day tropical cyclone predictions have historically carried substantial uncertainty, and machine learning approaches have shown promise in extending useful lead times.

What Zhejiang Has Shut Down

Zhejiang activated a level 2 emergency response Friday morning, the second-highest tier in a four-level system.

The measures are extensive. Authorities halted 162 ferry routes and 193 construction projects on the water, and docked 474 ships. Fifteen tow boats are standing by for emergencies.

In the coastal city of Ningbo, all seaside tourist and sporting activities have been temporarily suspended.

Fujian’s Preparations

Fujian issued a level 4 emergency response Thursday afternoon, directing all cities to secure fishing boats, ferries and offshore wind power platforms.

The provincial government also instructed cities to evacuate residents, inspect high-risk areas and stage emergency supplies.

Offshore wind infrastructure is a relatively new addition to typhoon preparation checklists, reflecting how much generating capacity has been installed along China’s southeastern coast in recent years.

Shanghai Could Take the Worst of It

If Dolphin makes landfall in northern Zhejiang and tracks northwest, CCTV reported that Shanghai would face the heaviest impact.

Under that scenario, the city could see strong winds and accumulated rainfall exceeding 10 centimeters between Friday and Monday.

Rainfall of that magnitude in a dense urban area raises drainage and flooding concerns independent of wind damage.

A Costly Season Already

This is not an isolated event in an otherwise quiet year.

Typhoons Maysak, Bavi and Noul have killed at least 50 people in China this season and caused estimated economic losses of at least 23 billion yuan, approximately $3.4 billion, according to media reports.

Meteorologists have warned residents to remain vigilant through August, particularly with a strong El Niño event developing.

Meteorologist Jia Xiaolong told Xinhua that multiple regions are already receiving more rain than normal this month, creating risks of flooding, landslides and reservoirs exceeding warning levels.

He said two or three typhoons are expected to make landfall or affect the country, with a possibility that storms travel unusually far north and northeast.

What to Watch

The critical variable over the next 48 hours is the landfall point.

A track toward northern Zhejiang puts Shanghai in the path of the heaviest rainfall. A more southerly approach shifts the impact toward Fujian and reduces the metropolitan exposure.

Beyond that, the storm’s post-landfall behavior will determine how far inland the rainfall threat extends, and whether the flash flood warnings across central provinces materialize into actual emergencies.