The California governor’s race remains unsettled as ballot counting drags on, but two clear front-runners have emerged. Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra hold the lead in the contest to replace termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom, while billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer clings to fading hopes that late-arriving votes might lift him into one of the two spots that advance to November’s general election.

A Race Still Hanging in the Balance

As officials continued tallying ballots on Wednesday, Hilton sounded upbeat. The British immigrant and former Fox News commentator told reporters outside the state Capitol in Sacramento that he felt “very encouraged” by the latest numbers, though he held back from claiming outright victory. Change, he suggested, was coming to California, framing it as good news for small businesses, working families, and anyone hoping to see the state get back on track.

Becerra and Steyer, by contrast, kept a lower profile, holding no public events through Wednesday afternoon.

The math, meanwhile, looks grim for Steyer. Election data analyst Paul Mitchell explained that closing the gap would be nearly impossible. By his calculation, Steyer would need to capture roughly 30 percent of the remaining uncounted votes while holding Becerra to just 15 percent. As more county data rolls in, Mitchell said, the billionaire’s path grows steeper by the day, and his runway keeps shrinking.

Still, Steyer isn’t conceding. His campaign manager, Heather Hargreaves, urged supporters to let democracy run its course, noting that counties were still counting and wouldn’t have a full picture of turnout until Thursday, when officials must report how many ballots remain.

The Underdog Who Caught Lightning

Few would have predicted Becerra’s rise. Not long ago, the former Biden administration cabinet member languished near the bottom of a crowded Democratic field. His fortunes changed dramatically after former Representative Eric Swalwell dropped out in April amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct. The scandal jolted a sleepy race to life and sent voter interest surging toward Becerra, who seized the moment.

Celebrating at his election night party in downtown Los Angeles, Becerra leaned into the narrative. “Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog story,” he told cheering supporters. He spoke of his Mexican immigrant parents and his path as the first in his family to attend college, recalling that his campaign had been outspent and that some had called on him to quit. The underdog, he said, stayed in the fight.

Analysts agree the timing was everything. Strategist Tim Rosales described Becerra as having “caught lightning in a bottle,” noting the opening could have gone to almost any rival had they not carried their own baggage. Videos of Katie Porter losing her temper damaged her image, Steyer’s wealth and heavy spending unsettled voters, and candidates like Antonio Villaraigosa and Matt Mahan struck many Democrats as too centrist. That left Becerra as the safe choice.

A Crowded and Costly Field

The 2026 primary ranks among the most unpredictable and expensive in decades. Beyond Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer, the race featured Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and a slate of Democrats including Porter, Mahan, Villaraigosa, and state Superintendent Tony Thurmond. Villaraigosa, Mahan, and Porter all conceded Tuesday night.

Steyer poured staggering sums into his bid, spending more than $216 million of his own fortune. The former hedge fund owner ran against corporate and special interests that loom large in Sacramento, railing against billionaires who hoard wealth and corporations that he accused of rigging the system and raising prices to pad profits.

The shape of the race owed much to who chose not to run. Several Democratic heavyweights, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Alex Padilla, and Attorney General Rob Bonta, declined to enter despite encouragement. Harris’s prolonged deliberation last year left the contest in limbo for months.

Veteran Democratic strategist Darry Sragow said he couldn’t recall a field quite like this one, which typically would feature a clear front-runner. He pushed back on the idea that it reflected a lack of talent, arguing that nearly any of the candidates could govern well.

How the Field Narrowed

For months, candidates struggled to break through. February polling showed the crowded Democratic field splitting liberal voters, raising the real possibility that the party could be locked out of November entirely under California’s open, top-two primary, which advances only the first- and second-place finishers regardless of party.

Just as Swalwell seemed poised to become the Democratic front-runner, the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published the allegations against him, and he suspended his campaign. Becerra benefited most, vaulting from low single digits to the top of the field in under two months, according to UC Berkeley surveys co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

On the Republican side, Trump endorsed Hilton in early April, helping the former Fox News host pull away from Bianco. By the final days, the race had hardened into a three-way fight among Becerra, Steyer, and Hilton.

Steyer escalated his attacks in the closing stretch, hammering Becerra in ads and at rallies as a creature of corporate special interests, warning voters against a governor he claimed had been “bought off by Big Oil.” Yet corporations, labor unions, and groups like the California Association of Realtors had spent more than $18.7 million boosting Becerra, with many of the same backers funding efforts to attack Steyer. Becerra returned fire, branding the billionaire a “liar” and accusing him of trying to buy the election, vowing not to let a billionaire or Trump’s handpicked candidate seize control of the state.

What’s at Stake in November

Should Becerra advance to face Hilton, he would enter with a commanding structural edge. Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly two to one in deeply blue California.

A general election victory would carry historic weight. At 68, Becerra would become the first elected Latino governor of California. Although Latinos make up roughly 40 percent of the state’s population and form its largest ethnic group, none has occupied the governor’s mansion since 1875, when then-Lieutenant Governor Romualdo Pacheco stepped up to fill a brief vacancy.

The contest arrives at a moment of deep voter anxiety. Soaring housing costs, steep gas prices, and a broader affordability crisis have shaken the “California dream” that once drew millions to the state. Without a marquee front-runner of the Schwarzenegger or Jerry Brown mold, the race has become a test of whether money, message, or momentum ultimately matters most.