The Russia Germany conflict is no longer a distant worry, according to Berlin’s own spy chief. On Monday, German intelligence leaders told the government that Moscow’s tactics carry a real risk of pulling the country into a violent confrontation, and possibly dragging NATO along with it.

A Warning From the Top

Martin Jager, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, addressed parliament and said the confrontation with Russia has taken on a new and more dangerous quality. No other country, he said, currently poses such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat to Germany.

His message was stark: Germany risks being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia.

Sabotage That Could Kill

Jager pointed out that Russian activity against European states backing Ukraine is shifting toward targets that could cause civilian casualties. One example was a foiled plot by Russian agents at Leipzig airport involving a drone loaded with explosives.

The worry is that such incidents could escalate into full-scale conflict with NATO.

Why Article 5 Looms Large

A direct attack on a NATO member could trigger Article 5, the alliance’s promise that an attack on one is an attack on all. It has been invoked only once, by the United States after the September 11 attacks, which led European forces to join the war on terror.

Merz Under Fire in Kyiv

The warning came a day after Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv with a group of German business leaders. Air-raid sirens sounded during the trip as the city came under attack, so Merz experienced the danger first-hand.

During the visit he announced a new aid package worth about 1.5 billion dollars, more than a billion of it military. It includes long-range strike weapons and combat drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the weapons will help immediately and stressed that air defence is also key.

Germany is already Ukraine’s biggest European donor, with more than 48.8 billion dollars sent since the war began. It is also providing about 395 million dollars in energy aid for generators, substations and repairs before winter.

The Old KGB Playbook, Updated

Teija Tiilikainen, director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, says her organisation is seeing a sharp rise in deadlier sabotage. Operations run by Russia’s FSB, and often blamed on the GRU military intelligence service, cost far less than conventional war. That matters as Russia’s economy struggles with limited returns from the Ukraine campaign.

She explained that Moscow has returned to its Soviet-era “active measures” but with modern technology. The goal goes beyond wrecking supplies bound for Ukraine. It is to undermine societies, manipulate public opinion and the information space, and weaken the resources allies can draw on.

In her words, this is a struggle over global leadership and the rules of the international order, and Russia wants to shift the balance of power.

What to Watch Next

• Further sabotage or drone incidents on European soil
• How Germany tightens security around airports and infrastructure
• Delivery of the new German weapons to Ukraine
• Any NATO discussion of collective response

The Bottom Line

The line between hybrid warfare and open conflict is getting thinner. Germany’s intelligence chief is telling the public that the danger is real, and Europe’s choices on defence, security and support for Ukraine will matter more with each passing week.